After more than 40 (used to be 30) years of airline industry experience, mostly in the consulting world, I hope to use this space to focus on the most talked-about issues in the airline business: the people running the airlines, labor unions, competition and finances in one of the most interesting industries in the world.
I did not start this blog to win friends or influence anyone. I’m a data guy, and I’ve been studying the industry long enough to come up with some strong opinions . . . many of which aren’t popular in either boardrooms or union halls. My approach is analytical because, in my view, the numbers don’t lie.
TOO MUCH CAPACITY OR THE WRONG CAPACITY MIX? Departed Seats Version.
EXPLAINING OUR VIEWS ON TOO MUCH CAPACITY TOO MUCH SEAT CAPACITY OR THE WRONG SEAT CAPACITY MIX? WHETHER ASMs OR DEPARTED SEATS ARE THE MEASURE, EACH POINTS TO A DOMESTIC INDUSTRY WITH TOO MUCH CAPACITY. and 2019 IS NOT THE RIGHT BASELINE BENCHMARK Swelbar-Zhong Consultancy
TOO MUCH CAPACITY OR THE WRONG CAPACITY MIX? ASM Version.
2019 IS NOT THE RIGHT BASELINE BENCHMARK EITHER Note: 2q'2024 earnings calls begin this week; airline stocks were hit hard on July 5, 2024; blaming the OEMs (thinking they might be the savior for some) is not the only reason that airlines are cutting capacity and
UNDER MY THUMB …
The iconic Rolling Stones song has many interpretations as to its meaning. All the way from worshiping the devil, to a role reversal in a male-female relationship, to suppression of individuality according to The Socratic Method. Over the last day or so I have been thinking
RIGGED? TOO CONCENTRATED? MY MODEL IS NOT BROKEN!
Or has my airline been too slow to respond? Or … I am finally getting around to writing the first post on my new blog site. Writing anything before now has not been for a lack of want but rather to write I must feel it.
#AirportDirector(s) Under Attack, Part II
#SmallerCommunityAirServiceDevelopment Yesterday's headline in the Lincoln Journal Star read: "Some sparks fly, but Lincoln Airport Authority board gives director a vote of confidence". 27 days ago, the same reporter, hashtag#PatSangimino, wrote an article: “Commissioner calls for city’s airport head to be fired.” The vote
#AirportDirector(s) Under Attack…
#AIRPORTDIRECTOR(S) UNDER ATTACK... “Commissioner calls for city’s airport head to be fired.” The above titled a March 2, 2024, article in the Lincoln Journal Star written by Pat Sangimino. Many of you have heard about the happenings in Lincoln, NE. Dave Haring's position as
#JetblueSpiritMerger – First Thoughts
1. So happy that jetBlue can re-think going forward without being burdened with the debt load. 2. A debt load associated with overpaying for assets that would have produced far less value than imagined when the deal was first announced. That debt load would
By The Numbers: 765, $6.6B and $8.6M
765: Number of days between Frontier's initial offer for Spirit and the day the #jetBlueSpiritMerger was terminated. $6.6B: The decrease in the market caps of the 3 airlines involved over those 765 days. $8.6M: The cumulative daily market cap lost for the 3 airlines